leverage

Recently I have indicated I see a lot of problems in asset markets despite the economic acceleration in Europe, Japan, and the US. Commercial real estate is a problem that I want to highlight briefly since I believe it will be a locus of…

Two notable events regarding stock and bond markets have occurred in the last twenty-four hours. One is comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that suggest she sees U.S. equity prices as elevated. The second is a wide-spread backup in yields…

Despite the crisis in Greece, I have been talking about rotating into Europe because I believe equities are priced more reasonably than the US and because fixed income assets will get a boost from QE. I want to talk a bit more about this…

I got a lot of feedback from my January 5 blog entry because of my argument that the implementation of the reforms proposed in the Third Plenum all but guarantees that growth rates in China will slow down. For that reason I thought it might…

Right now, everyone is talking about an emerging markets crisis due to the simultaneous turmoil in several emerging markets. I am not concerned about this being a full-blown crisis yet. At the same time, I do want to use this as a launchpad…

Sub-investment-grade loans continue to perform well, driven by demand for floating rate product. As an example, the chart below compares the performance of Invesco's "Senior Income" fund (VVR) - which mostly holds loans of…

As you may know, I now use the sectoral balances approach very heavily in looking at economic forecasting. The crux of the sectoral balances is that, from an accounting perspective, every sector's deficit must be offset by an equal surplus…

Business Insider met with Goldman's Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and learned he is bullish on the US economy largely because he believes his Wynne Godley-inspired model of the US economy shows likely releveraging in the household sector. …

This is a continuation of yesterday's post on the outlook in the banking sector. Two years ago, I said that net interest margins at banks would get crushed by the Fed's keeping interest rates low because it would cause the yield curve to…

By Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director, Financial Stability, Bank of England There is a long list of culprits when it comes to assigning blame for the financial crisis. This column argues economists are among the guilty, having succumbed…