Jobs

Everybody's favourite bearish analyst, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg had a few thoughts on some of the bullish analyses he's been seeing. Despite his bearishness, he even goes as far as to say why he would be bullish. Here are the first…

CNBC discusses the small tick up in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index with William Dunkelberg, Chief Economist for the National Federation of Independent Business. Note that despite the uptick, small businesses are not saying they plan…

John Hussman is not buying the recent risk-on sentiment that has developed since September began. For example, retail sales numbers are to be released tomorrow.  Marc Chandler has said that a number above consensus estimates of 0.3%…

By most estimates, the statistical recovery which began in the second half of 2009 in the US has been weak. Many had been talking about a V-shaped recovery early this year. However, given the magnitude of the imbalances in the U.S. leading…

Jobless claims have been quite elevated of late, averaging around 450-480,000 for the past few months. While these are worrying figures, they do not in and of themselves point to recession. In my last post I used a chart of the year-on-year…

I tend to put a lot of stock in jobless claims as a coincident (real-time) indicator of the economic scene. My reasoning here is fairly simple. Household spending makes up 70% of the economy. Households are dependent on labour wages for the…

As you know, I have been back pedalling on my support for fiscal stimulus since late in 2009. I still think fiscal policy is effective – more so than monetary policy; quantitative easing is a bust because we are in a liquidity trap. But the…

The employment data was better than expected, but the dollar is not making much headway. The private sector added 62k and the July data was revised up to 107k from 71k initially. The unemployment rate ticked up to 9.6% from 9.5%.…

Highlights The US dollar is mixed in quiet trading ahead of the US jobs report. With some risk-taking is returning to the markets on the back of data this week suggesting that the pace of the slowdown may be moderating and this is lending…

The two key events of the day are passing with little fanfare. The weekly initial jobless claims in the US slipped and sufficiently so as to bring down the 4-week moving average for the first time in a little over a month, but remain too…