Jobs

I have been off since Thursday due to the Easter holiday. But I want to write my traditional Friday post today with a grab bag of different issues I am seeing. I actually just want to focus on the US this time.

I have been saying for some time now that I believe peak growth in this US business cycle was Q3 2013. Nevertheless, I want to explore the possibility that growth will accelerate from here, something that could keep stock prices and other…

The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's gains that were scored largely in response to Draghi's revelation that QE and a negative deposit rate were discussed at the ECB meeting. The consensus expects that the US economy grew 200k jobs…

We are seeing signs of significant improvements in US labor markets. The ADP report today was certainly an indication of recovery from the winter slowdown. One area to watch in the ADP report is construction, as construction payrolls have…

This is a loaded topic. This entry, however, is not intended to be political. Very few things in economics are good or bad in themselves, but rather can be good under certain conditions or bad under others. I want to try to tease out as…

Sanctions because of the Crimean crisis have had less economic impact than private portfolio preference shifts. However, as Ukraine moves into the EU sphere, further actions against Ukraine could be more far-reaching. China has moved…

US data have been better European periphery market access continues to improve Dollar weakness may be China-related Gold continues to get safe haven bid China’s slowing more likely to be abrupt Ukraine has become a military issue;…

By Marc Chandler US retail sales rose 0.3% in February, a little more than expected. The news was blunted by sharp downward revisions to the January series, leaving the level of retail sales lower and pointing to somewhat less personal…

Since October I have been saying that the US growth was probably going to decline for the remainder of this business cycle. In contrast, I have believed Europe would recover ever since data last June confirmed a broad based phase shift…

Today’s ADP employment report came out with a figure of 139,000 jobs added to the US economy in February. This number is low and comes with downward revisions to past numbers. The ADP data are the last big numbers we will see except weekly…