James Montier

James Montier reveals data showing everyone knows stocks are overvalued. But they act as if they believe they can get out before the bottom falls out. This will end badly when the market stalls out.

MPT is based on a number of assumptions, some of which are more restrictive than others. The question is whether the sum of those assumptions is so far off the mark that it renders the entire theory absolutely useless. Effectively the…

This weekly newsletter is a gold-level post and follows up on my prediction early last month about 2012 being a period of margin compression in US companies, threatening the rally in stocks and mandating a rotation in investment style or…

It seems that a lot of analysts have caught onto the MMT framework popularized by the late economist Wynne Godley and made topical in this downturn by Rob Parenteau of the Richebacher Letter. We have seen Martin Wolf use Godley and…

Here's something I want to run by you on behavioural economics and the way economic issues are being debated in the blogosphere. We are witnessing an implosion of long-held belief structures that go the core of how we believed our economic…

You have heard me use the phrase “liquidity is seeking return” to describe the increase in the price of riskier assets due to monetary stimulus. The Bloomberg News video clip below points to an increase in lending for buyers of riskier…

Late last year, I predicted that China, as a major exporter to the West, would feel a huge impact from the meltdown in the global economy, taking it’s growth rate down to 2% (See Top ten predictions for the 2009 global economy). Forgetting…

Bank of NY Mellon sees writedowns, 2009 profit: report - Reuters This is what I expect many banks to be saying later this quarter. Is Obama Edging Towards Bush-Like Indefinite Detention? - Michael Scherer, Swampland…

During Alan Greenspan’s tenure at the helm of the Federal Reserve, he was often accused of using monetary policy to target asset markets so as to keep the party going.  In short, Alan Greenspan was seen by many, including myself, as the…