inventories

The following is a worthy analysis from Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman regarding the recent GDP numbers released in the U.S. and their significance for currencies (emphasis mine): The initial reading of the US Q1 GDP was worse…

Real U.S. GDP declined at an annualized 6.1% in the first quarter (Jan-Mar) of 2009. This almost exactly matches the 6.3% decline in Q4 and is a MUCH larger decline than expected. While I have not crunched all the numbers yet, I am…

This April 2009 post is holding up well and still describes my view on the economic situation in the United States. I am much more confident that the cyclical forces I described here are leading to a recovery. The question now has to do…

The results of my poll are back and  according to readers we are clearly in Depression.  A plurality of you voted for depression with a small 'd,' edging out those who see Depression with a Big  'D.' I agree with this assessment as I…

Overnight, the Japanese government released figures for Q4 2008 GDP that pointed to a depression-like fall in the Japanese economy. GDP contracted 3.3% from Q3, or 12.7% using the U.S. convention of annualizing those numbers. This is the…

Now that I have burnished my bullish bona fides with two posts from the optimistic viewpoint, I want to share with you an analysis from John Mauldin that is much closer to the truth regarding where the global economy is headed, what type of…

I won't be able to comment here until later today when I will update this post. But I wanted to report that U.S. GDP shrank 0.3% in Q3, less than the 0.5% median forecast. Now, when it comes to government statistics like GDP, the devil's…

Economists had expected the durable goods report for August 2008 to be weak, but the report showing durable goods orders down 4.5% was much weaker than expected.While I do believe that the United States is in recession and the durable goods…

U.S. jobless claims were 406,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 34,000 on the week prior and surpassing 400,000 for only the 3rd time this business cycle. While the numbers were large, they are very distorted by seasonal adjustment…

The U.S. has been flashing red regarding recession for some time despite the naysayers.First, let me define recession because you usually hear that it's two consecutive quarters of a decline in real GDP. Not exactly. The National Bureau…