inflation

The FOMC is scheduled to release a policy statement tomorrow, with a press conference to follow. A quarter percent increase in the Fed funds target is guaranteed. But future Fed policy will depend on three Fed projections: the dot plot,…

Hyman Minsky's financial theory of investment is unique. He looks at an economy as having two inherently different price systems. There's one price system for goods and services. And there's another one for assets. The econometrics that…

In March, signs of inflation have subsided and bonds have rallied. Maybe the bond bear market Gross and Dalio foresee isn't actually going to happen. A lot of the future price action hinges on future monetary policy.

Market data don't speak to full employment right now. Inflation expectations would be rising. They don't speak to the 4 or 5% GDP growth Larry Kudlow expects either. Instead we should be wary of potential stagnation, even recession. And a…

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard has given a defining speech that marks a regime shift in US monetary policy. She says that economic headwinds that favored caution have turned to tailwinds. The implication is a more aggressive…

In my view, the US economy is not red-hot. I don't fear overheating. But I believe the Fed does. And it will act accordingly.The regime shift is happening now. We'll just have to see how the economy responds.

There is a notable lack of long-run analyses of monetary systems and their stability. This column addresses this gap by looking at the monetary systems of major European states between 1300 and 1914. The evidence collected suggests that,…

Albert Edwards says the Fed will tighten more aggressively. The increase in interest rates will be a stimulant at first. But eventually, the higher rates will catch up with debtors.

Rising inflation expectations are pushing interest rates higher. But Fed moves matter more. If the data continue to show growth in the economy, markets will move toward the Fed and interest rates will rise.

The rise in inflation is necessary but not sufficient to force the Fed to tighten even more aggressively than it has forecast.