France

I have some interesting ideas on the eurozone regarding France, a housing decline and its divergence from the rest of Europe. But I am going to save that for a later post. Suffice it to say the German - French spread is widening; it is at…

In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty…

Europe’s recovery is still uneven. Recent data in France and the Netherlands show one nation with contracting GDP and the other with expanding GDP. When will the recovery begin in earnest?

The Eurozone recovery continues to be uneven, powered primarily by a pickup in export-driven manufacturing and with only some nations participating. In particular we are witnessing a significant divergence between the area’s two largest…

The scenario I laid out for Europe for 2014 in three posts on the global economy last week is one of muddling through. However, whereas in the US, there are upside risks, in Europe the risks are mostly to the downside, politically and…

I believe, as many economic analysts do, that global growth is accelerating. Backing that up, two days ago I looked at four economies where growth has been good. But, yesterday, I looked at four economies where growth has been poor and big…

The latest data out of Europe shows the economy in the euro zone continuing to expand and suggests that we are probably in a technical recovery. In Europe, however, the threat to recovery is to the downside, whereas in the U.S. the main…

The data flow out of Europe today is pretty bad. German factories orders missed and unemployment rose to record levels in France and Greece. Meanwhile the IMF admitted that Greece's delayed debt restructuring "provided a window for private…

As I have ben predicting here for months, the problems in individual large European economies have become to large to bear for the prevailing European policy mix. Therefore, today, in releasing the next year's country specifici…

Now, you may well deduct from all of this that I am as bearish as I have ever been, but nothing could be further from the truth. The issues I have discussed in this month’s letter are clouds on the horizon which are likely to take years to…