forward guidance

I spoke at a Euromoney conference on inflation-linked products last year. My thesis at the time that deflation is the real problem and that inflation isn't going to be a concern - which has largely proved right - was out of step with most…

By Marc Chandler Today, ECB President Draghi essentially repeated his comments from last month. The key is that rates will remain at current levels or lower for an extended period and, although the economy is gradually recovering, growth…

The ECB has moved toward forward guidance but they have been careful not to press too far ahead, I suspect because they wanted to get Weidmann on board. Here are two recent comments on ECB policy and some of my own.

The ECB's forward guidance last week was begun with unanimous support including the German contingent. I think this is a very significant development in the European sovereign debt crisis because it moves the ECB that much closer to full…

Interest rates will stay low for a long time - long as in years, not months. In the UK there is a risk that a weakening currency may lead to some modest increase in inflation but, generally speaking, inflation is not a problem, and all…

By Marc Chandler The ECB took an unprecedented step today. Part of its mantra has been that it does not pre-commit. Today it did. It indicated interest rates will be the same or lower for an extended period of time. Draghi, when pressed,…

I was looking at Tim Duy's latest post on monetary policy and asking myself the same question he asks about normalizing the interest rate cycle. Here's what Tim wrote about getting off the zero bound: "it is perfectly reasonable to…

The following is an excerpt of an article written for the Dallas Fed this month by William R. White, a well-known Canadian economist who served as Chief Economist for the Bank of International Settlements until 2008 and was also one of the…

Editor's Note: this post has been corrected to reflect a different interpretation of the Goldman analyst's remarks. Ex-ECB economist Huw Pill agrees with many of us that the ECB is unlikely to engage in explicit rate targeting when it…

A few hours ago I wrote a rather downbeat post on the prospects for the US economy that continued the thoughts from an article I wrote in the New York Times. A number of other sources have confirmed some of the logic behind that post since…