forward guidance

I was off last week when the Fed raised rates a quarter percentage point. But I promised to comment on the Fed's action when I returned. I am doing so now.

I think I have the answer to at least one question: why was the Fed talking to big money investors in the first place. My thoughts follow below.

We are now three months into 2017 and we can look back on 2016 as a fairly good year economically for the US. So given that backdrop, was it right to worry about a recession in 2016? And what does that say about 2017? Here’s my view below.

The title of this post is what the Fed wants us to believe. It wants us to believe that it is prepared to raise interest rates this year but that it will increase them slowly by assessing the data, hiking once and re-assessing, and then…

The biggest takeaway from the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting was the reduction in the ‘normal’ rate of unemployment from the 5.2-5.5% range to a 5.0-5.2% range. While the Fed did remove its ‘patient’ language regarding…

This is my third post on tail risk now. I think the continued and broadening market volatility we have seen across asset classes in the last few months is a sign of increased tail risk and i wanted to put some parameters around how to think…

The West has accepted Crimea’s annexation and will likely only increase sanctions if Russia goes further The Ukraine – IMF deal will put the Ukrainian economy through the wringer Russia’s economy is going to tank due to capital flight…

So finally we get to see what the Yellen Fed is all about. And it is not as dovish as people thought it would be.While the noises Yellen made concerning the jobs market came across as dovish, behind the scenes a more hawkish tone has…

By Marc Chandler There has been sharp rise in US interest rates and the dollar in the immediate response to the Federal Reserve's statement. The key it seemed was the expectation that federal funds would be at 1% at the end of next year.…

As high income economies improve and the financial sectors stabilize, central bankers understandably and rightly, want to move away from the unorthodox policies that were necessary to avoid an even larger collapse and more suffering.