Europe

Stephen Roach told Bloomberg television earlier today that he does not expect the recession in Europe to be severe. Therefore, he believes the impact on other economies, particularly in Asia that depends on Europe for external demand for…

Tension surrounding the application of a series of so-called “unorthodox policies” by Hungary’s Fidesz government has certainly been rising in recent days. While Washington has been reasonably quiet as government emissary Tamas Fellegi…

The argument presented here is to underscore the over-stretched condition of the euro and to warn medium term investors of the risk of the euro bounce. The euro has dropped more than 11% since late October against the dollar and we suspect…

Central Banks, whenever they buy any asset create new reserves. Commercial banks and people do NOT have the capacity to destroy those reserves. Once the Fed or ECB wires the money or creates that asset line item on its spreadsheet, there is…

Better than expected reception to Spain and Italy’s debt auctions have spurred risk on; dollar softer. BoE, as expected, left policy unchanged, ECB expected to do the same; Japan’s current account shrinks. US advanced retail sales expected…

Happy Wednesday. I know the news is 'less good' today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today's topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the…

Spain and Italy begin this year's funding operations with bond auctions tomorrow and Friday. Although the euro is bouncing along its recent trough against not only the dollar, but against many of the other major currencies as well, there…

While many will be initially surprised by the data, on reflection it makes intuitive sense. In crude terms, wealthier countries typically work smarter--more capital intensively--than poor countries, not longer.

Mr. Obama’s Secretary Geithner went to Europe met with EU leaders to demand that Greece make the write-downs voluntary on the part of banks and creditors. He explained that U.S. banks had bet that Greece would not default – and their net…

The euro was recovering in early Europe, moving back toward the upper end of its recent narrow range and it reversed course sharply, triggering stops along the way as it dropped nearly a cent to $1.2695. The technical failure yesterday at…