Europe

This is weekly number three for Credit Writedowns Gold. The topic for the week is really unavoidable because it is all anyone talks about: Europe. Let's be honest, Europe is a complete mess and I believe it will only get worse. The question…

We think markets are getting too bulled up on the IMF headlines today. As the saying goes, “Show me the money!” Until then, we remain skeptical that the IMF will be able to obtain the extra funding it desires. Even if the IMF does get the…

To me this situation looks pretty hopeless frankly. Policy makers in Europe just don't get it. The best we are going to get is austerity and partial monetisation by the ECB until the union breaks or sovereign debtors default and banks are…

To me this situation looks pretty hopeless frankly. Policy makers in Europe just don't get it. The best we are going to get is austerity and partial monetisation by the ECB until the union breaks or sovereign debtors default and banks are…

According to Austrian newspaper Der Standard, Austrian banks had 18.1 billion euros of exposure to foreign sovereign debt at the end of October. The debt to which the banks were most exposed were Polish, Italian, German and Hungarian…

Swiss daily newspaper Tagesanzeiger is reporting that Fitch, the ratings agency, is about to downgrade six European countries because of the sovereign debt crisis. The paper says that six euro countries were put on ratings review in…

Fortunately the ECB has deep pockets, and as I argue in this post, these will probably suffice to keep short term bond yields down to acceptable levels, and help the banks fund themselves and recapitalise. What the ECB’s LTRO’s won’t do is…

Dollar is trading on its back foot following solid EZ debt auctions; IMF seeks to increase lending capacity. The key issue today is whether North American players will sell into euro bounce; 20dma seen at $1.2875. UK Claimant count better…

Despite the ongoing hawkish rhetoric from the ECB, there are signs that they are getting it: The LTRO can't work, as you're essentially just swapping one liability for another one (albeit more long term in duration, therefore making it…

Check out the below graphic which shows General Government Deficit/Surplus as % of GDP on the Y axis, Government Debt as % of GDP on the X axis, and the Government Debt in Euros as the size of the bubble. Pretty cool!