Europe

In spite of some positive economic signals out of the Eurozone, the area continues to struggle with credit growth. The latest loan growth measures still look quite bleak. We may however be seeing the first signs of the bottoming out of…

The dollar is broadly higher against the major currencies, with the Swedish krona and euro suffering the most. Poor retail sales in Sweden and unexpected weakness in the German labor market report (unemployment rose 7k vs the consensus…

The capital outflow from the emerging markets is proving as destabilizing as the previous inflows. Pundits can talk about currency wars all they want, but the real issue is the ability to cope with volatile capital flows, which is the…

One often hears the refrain "the market is not the economy", but what does that really mean? I am going to explain it in my terms here in the context of the global reflation trade - EM meltdown paradox.

I am alarmed at how quickly economic and market volatility has spread throughout the emerging markets. However, I remain positive about the big picture global macro outlook because recent data show that Europe, the US and now China are…

If you look at the last two posts on this site from Marc Chandler and from Sober Look the connection between Fed tapering and money flows is clear. Hot money is flowing out of emerging markets and into Europe.

The US dollar stands at the fulcrum. Investment flows are leaving emerging markets, with currencies from Brazil,India,Indonesia and Mexico being hit the hardest over the last few sessions. The MSCI Emerging Market Index is off 4.5% over the…

Despite the grandiose title of this post, I intend to keep my comments brief. Having had a few days to digest the news without having to write, I come back somewhat more optimistic about the European economy. I wouldn't call myself a bull…

We continue to identify four main macro issues shaping the investment climate: The tapering anticipation in the US; the stabilization of the Chinese economy; a cyclical recovery in Europe; and the long awaited Japanese purchases of foreign…

The main tension in the foreign exchange market is between positions adjusting pressures, which are US dollar negative, and widely held ideas that the trajectory of growth and interest rate differentials favor the US, which is dollar…