Europe

The ECB's dovish forward guidance is clear and does not lack the doubts seen in the UK, or to a less extent, the US. However, in an usual occurrence overnight rates (EONIA) has moved above the refi rate (25 bp), when it should be trading…

Despite my unease about the secular headwinds of debt, bank balance sheets and wage stagnation, I must admit that many of the recent macro data points globally are pointing to growth. This is true in the US, in Europe, in Japan and in…

By Willem Buiter This post first appeared on Vox Fiscal sustainability has become a hot topic as a result of the European sovereign debt crisis, but it matters in normal times, too. This column argues that financial sector reforms are…

By Marc Chandler The ECB meets tomorrow. There is much consternation among many observers over the ECB's reluctance to recognize what they see as a potent deflationary threat. With the US economy gaining momentum and GDP per capita set to…

When the Eurozone moved toward the backloaded austerity paradigm, last Spring, I started to change my tune on Europe. In June, I wrote that we should watch second derivatives in the Eurozone, because the change in change numbers are a…

I have some interesting ideas on the eurozone regarding France, a housing decline and its divergence from the rest of Europe. But I am going to save that for a later post. Suffice it to say the German - French spread is widening; it is at…

Clearly, most analysis for 2014 is upbeat. Economists are predicting higher global growth, higher U.S. growth, an end to the sovereign debt crisis and all manner of positive economic outcomes. And I think all of this upbeat analysis is…

In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty…

This post represents Marc Chandler's thoughts on key topics to watch in markets and the economy for 2014

Europe’s recovery is still uneven. Recent data in France and the Netherlands show one nation with contracting GDP and the other with expanding GDP. When will the recovery begin in earnest?