Europe

We identified and continue to track key forces that offer insight into the euro dollar exchange rate. To monitor the near-term trend, we have used the 5 and 20 day moving averages. They have done a fairly good job of capturing this year's…

Sunday Greek deputy Prime Minister Pangalos told a local paper that in theory debt restructuring should not be completely ruled out, though the deficit would need to be dealt with first.  He argued against "demonizing" debt…

The Germans are planning to put forward a plan to change  guidelines to the stability and growth pact (SGP) to give it more teeth. The sense in Berlin is that the SGP, which limits budget deficits to 3% and debt-to-GDP to 60%, has been…

by Claus Vistesen (picture courtesy of International Business Times) Update: I was so caught up with Ireland today that I didn't notice how Greece also wants its part of the limelight. But fear not; Joseph Cotterhill from Alphaville…

Into the European close, the euro has broken down further.  A break below $1.3835 warns of the increased risk of a return to last week's low near $1.3700.  The unwinding of long euro cross positions, especially against sterling…

Long term (over 20-30 years) demographics will favor the U.S. over Germany and China in international trade.

by Annaly Capital Management We attended a conference this week hosted by Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, which is always a mix of long and short investment ideas and bullish and bearish macroeconomic observations. This one was no…

Executive Summary:  We suspect the dollar’s decline against the euro is reaching its final stages.  US interest rates appear to have largely priced in some form of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve (though headline risk…

by Win Thin Markets have given a big thumbs down to the austerity measures announced by Hungary this week, with the forint and foreign currency bonds giving up some of their recent gains.  The government is still trying to go it alone…

by Edward Hugh Just to follow up on my recent long Estonia post, a couple of new data points have caught my attention recently: the sharp rise in Estonian inflation and the ongoing goods trade deficit. In the first place it is worth…