Europe

The FT is reporting that US President Donald Trump sees Germany as a ‘currency manipulator’ of sorts, a view bound to have negative consequences on bilateral relations. What’s more, according to the Financial Times, Trump’s top trade…

As Donald Trump attempts to make wholesale shifts in American domestic and foreign policy, there are bound to be winners and losers economically and politically. Leading German government representatives from Sigmar Gabriel to Frank Walter…

I have long suspected that an act of Parliament would be necessary to formally trigger Article 50. In an 8-3 verdict today, the UK Supreme Court affirmed this suspicion. Theresa May cannot invoke royal prerogative for the simple reason that…

If you want to know whwere Trump is headed on trade, don’t look at China or Mexico. Don’t even look at the UK. Canada is the country to watch for a number of reasons. First of all, Canada has an existing deal with the US and Mexico under…

On Monday, UK Prime Minister Theresa unveiled her vision for Britain’s exit from the European Union. The Prime Minister couched her outlook in positive terms, speaking of Britain leaving the EU but remaining in Europe. She spoke of EU…

British Prime Minister Theresa May set out details for her vision regarding the UK’s relationship with the EU In a speech today that will please those that campaigned to leave the EU. The Prime Minster, as expected, made clear that this…

On Friday, I wrote why, unlike Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, I believe the economic threat of Brexit to the British economy is now higher. The gist of my remarks was that an actual trigger of Article 50 under hard Brexit…

When the Brexit vote first happened, I indicated that I didn’t see the huge risk to the UK that others did. In fact, I thought the initial tail risks were elsewhere, like the Italian banking system. The economic risks for the UK were always…

Eurobonds are one way of tying the fortunes of eurozone countries together by eliminating - or at least greatly reducing - default risk. The thinking is that if you have a common currency and free labour movement and you still don’t have…

This isn't going to be a thematic post on how to profit from Europe's breakup, despite the sinister title. Instead, it’s a potpourri post - a mashup of different ideas I have right now and want to run by you to organize my thinking about…