Hugh Hendry on the economy and the sovereign debt crisis
We’ve reached a very rare moment in economic history where the problem is greater than the ability of the politicians to respond.
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Browsing Tag
Europe
What can we learn from the policies that spurred the Industrial Revolution?
Some of the dominant policy issues of today – immigration, energy, the emergence of China – have their analogues in the great Industrial Revolution. The key government policies that laid the foundation for the Industrial Revolution in…
So You’re Saying There’s a Plan?
Market confidence continues to improve amid hopes that euro zone policy makers take bold actions. Slovenia begins vote on EFSF ratification; sharp shifts in positioning may prompt mean reversion. Hong Kong’s trade figures showed a softening…
A few thoughts on economic nationalism
I want to talk a little about the political economy. A few months ago I added the topic tag “nationalism” to the topics this blog covers because I believe this is an issue which becomes relevant during global economic crises.
Crisis and Instability – Searching for Terra Firma
It was not immediately clear to many when the current crisis began that it was going to be this kind of event. The G7 and IMF understand how the cash register works and have vast experience in tweaking the cash register from time to time.…
S&P: More bailouts will lead to Germany’s eventual downgrade
Germany’s ability and willingness to pay will decrease as the economy falters. Remember, Germany is more indebted than Spain and has also long been in violation the Maastricht Treaty’s stability and growth pact provision on government debt…
Here’s why inverted yield curves are a leading indicator of recession
Just following up on my last post about the expectations theory of interest rates, I wanted to explain why yield curve inversion signals recession – and why it hasn't this go round in the US.
A Week is a Long Time
European stocks higher in part from ECB and potential policy action; dollar softer against majors. G10 market focus this week again EZ with EFSF votes, bonds auctions, Greece aid; US macro data. EMs are likely to be dominated by DM…
The longer we delay, the worse it will be for peripheral Europe
As I see it, we cannot continue with the existing currency arrangement. Countries like Spain (I am reverting to my habit of calling all the deficit countries “Spain” and all the surplus countries “Germany”) simply will not adjust quickly…
Don’t Forget the Pain in Spain Because of the Dance in France
Spain appears to have dropped off radar screens. In part, a disorderly outcome of the Greek crisis continues to be threatened. Italian bond yields and CDS prices have risen above Spain's. Yet, ironically, earlier this week, Spain's central…