Europe

The investment climate is being shaped by two powerful forces.  First is the very accommodative policy stance.  In addition to the accommodative monetary policy, fiscal policy is also supportive. 

Italy's election has the potential for some surprises. The Five Star Movement, which is polling first in surveys, has pledged a referendum on the euro if Brussels does not change its fiscal rules. Berlusoni's Forza Italia and Salvini's…

The working economic model in North America and Europe is one in which the central bank and the fiscal agents are working at cross-purposes, with the central bank doing the heavy lifting if stimulus is desired.

When we talk about winners and losers in Euroland, the natural question is, “how can you make everybody a winner?”. And I think this is important while Euroland goes through a cyclical upswing since that’s when reforms can actually be the…

The eurozone is fully recovered from the sovereign debt crisis. And that’s been true since early in 2016. But it’s only now that big growth is kicking into high gear as the synchronized global upturn takes hold. But who are the winners and…

The European PMIs that came out today showed an EU economy that is not just in full recovery mode, but booming. Likely the ECB will reduce its level of accommodation in line with this growth.

With the US treasury yield curve flattening to almost 60 basis points between 2 and 10-year maturities, we need to ask where are the vulnerabilities in the market if this spate of good news ends. I believe we should look at high yield,…

Since the EU had been a growth laggard due to the European sovereign debt crisis, the pickup in growth there is encouraging. In particular, Italy deserves mention as it has lagged and is where I believe the battle for the EU’s future will…

Most of the recent economic news from developed economies has been good. European growth, in particular, seems to have accelerated. Nothing I see in the economic data causes me worry. So I am cautiously optimistic that this upturn will last…

There has been much debate on the determinants of the vote for Brexit. This column uses newly released data from the Understanding Society study to examine the characteristics of individuals who were for and against Brexit. Unhappiness…