equities

I am a contrarian by nature. That has its pluses and minuses. As a contrarian, I am constantly thinking to myself, "but, is that really true?" As a result, I often find myself recognizing a trend before it catches on or standing…

Last week, I showed two charts on returns on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that had two seemingly contradictory messages. In the first chart measuring 10-year returns, one could clearly see that long-term returns have been declining…

Since June, bond yields have fallen to the point where the U.S. government is getting paid to borrow money right across the entire yield curve. The 10-year is 3.8%, while inflation in the U.S. is 5.6% . What gives? This is either a flight…

Five-year returns almost never exceed 100% (denoted by the dotted red line in the chart). There are three notable bubble periods in stocks above 100%: pre-1929, pre-1987 and pre-1999*. This is not one of those periods.

Andrew Smithers is an economic commentator whose book 'Valuing Wall Street' I highly recommend. He is another market economist who shares my view that a 'Buy and Hold' Strategy is not necessarily the best. But he also has an economic…

'Buy and hold' is a myth that I hope dies an ugly death just like the Efficient Market Hypothesis. When one looks at the numbers, it is as plain as day that the stock market moves in sweeping trends that take decades to unfold.

Warren Buffett has done pretty well for himself, amassing a net worth north of $50 billion. Yet, for all his detailed analysis and combing through financial reports, he has never said he models things out to the nth degree.In fact, Buffett…

In psychology, cognitive dissonance is an uncomfortable feeling or stress caused by holding two contradictory ideas simultaneously. The theory of cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a fundamental cognitive drive to reduce this…

Berkshire Hathaway, the company led by Warren Buffett, is offering a five-year debt deal for the highest spread over treasurys in its history. As Berkshire is a low-risk AAA company, this fact reinforces the magnitude of credit market…

The day is almost over for the market (thank goodness) and it seems that financal service investors are in panic mode again. The market is down over 250 points and some shares in financial services are down over 15%. What gives?As we may…