Wow! Who would of thunk it. The Dow the only major global equity index positive for the year. U.S. Treasuries up 15-20 percent, the dollar index (Dixe) positive; Brazil and Chinese equities down 20 percent and India down almost 25…
The S&P 500 volatility index - the VIX - is a measurement of volatility expectations. It has fallen 50% since the (latest) agreement to save the euro was announced. If the VIX falls to 18, call options are worth considering.
US dollar is softer vs. majors Friday as markets head into holiday mode; sentiment improving a bit in the absence of any major negative euro zone developments. France Q3 GDP revised weaker, Italy confidence lower than expected; euro zone…
US dollar is mixed vs. majors Thursday as market sentiment improving a bit in the wake of ECB’s 3-year LTRO. Merkel advisor Bofinger warned that the euro zone has six months to solve the debt crisis; Greek creditors reportedly balking at…
Foreign Affairs has just posted a must read piece, "China’s Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped", which will sound very familiar to Global Macro Monitor readers. We’re going to be spend a lot time over the holidays thinking how this…
US dollar was firmer vs. majors Monday even as euro zone news stream remains negative; Moody's cut Belgium two notches Friday to Aa3 and kept a negative outlook. Euro short positions at record high on IMM; euro zone Finance Ministers to…
The guys over at Bespoke put out a great piece yesterday comparing the post-bubble performance of U.S. financials after the February 2007 top and the technology sector after the dot.com peak in March 2000.
All in all, the negative fallout from the EU sovereign debt crisis and the outlook for the U.S. economy are likely to have a strong downward pull on the stock market. Rather than reflecting fear, the market seems unusually complacent as…