equities

It was interesting to see the US markets follow through yesterday to the upside after a monster rally in shares when the Fed tapered large scale asset purchases on Wednesday. But rather than seeing strength in this, I see vulnerability…

Yesterday, the FOMC decided to reduce the pace of its large scale asset purchase program from $85 billion per month to $75 billion per month. The Fed has long wanted to taper its LSAP program and move to forward guidance to normalize policy…

Markets have failed to correct 15 or even 10% for a record period of time during this cyclical bull market. Given the stretched valuations, this makes the market vulnerable to a pullback. What are the types of events which could precipitate…

Niels Jensen: How to spot a bubble? Being closer to the exit point does not, however, imply bubble behaviour. Yes, there are signs of excesses creeping back in to the markets. however, I do not see much in terms of the classic signs of…

Banks pay next to nothing on deposits while charging a rate that is often linked to treasuries on the loans they make. The steeper the curve, the wider the "margin". And given the leverage inherent in the banking system, even a small margin…

I have spent some time this past weekend reading what investment manager Hugh Hendry has had to say about why he has turned bullish. And the clear takeaways are twofold. First, it is very difficult to ‘fight the Fed’ when it wants growth.…

I am not a bull, largely because I have concerns about the long-term sustainability of today’s policy mix in Europe and the United States and the rise in equity multiples. But it is undeniable that we are seeing a more bullish outlook for…

The news flow over the Thanksgiving weekend and starting this week has been positive. I believe the data support continued global recovery, even in Europe where the data have been the weakest as the latest batch of economic data show…

That's right, despite all of the recent "bubble talk," it is entirely possible that stocks could rise 30% higher from here. However, it is not because valuations are cheap because as I discussed in my recent analysis of Q3 earnings stocks…

The macro debate today is about secular stagnation and the correct policy response to deal with it if it exists. With that backdrop, it is interesting to read Jeremy Grantham’s latest quarterly letter to investors, which sounds a word of…