Emerging Markets

The Absolute Return Letter, November 2010 by Niels Jensen “If I were BoJ, I would set a trap for all the currency speculators in the world. I would intervene in the currency market, appearing unsuccessfully, to lure speculators to…

by Win Thin S&P affirmed Hungary’s BBB- rating but kept the negative outlook in place, signaling that all is not yet clear for the country.  We believe that markets have gotten too bulled up on Hungary lately and are overlooking…

by Win Thin Reserve Bank of India is expected to hiked rates by 25 bp at its regular meeting Tuesday.  Reverse repo rate is now 5.0% and the repo rate 6.0%.  This comes after RBI hiked rates 25 bp in September under the recent…

by Win Thin US Treasury Secretary Geithner broke down the world’s currencies into three groups:  1) currencies that are undervalued “by any measure”, 2) EM countries that have flexible currencies under what could be called a “dirty…

from Win Thin, Global Head Of Emerging Markets Strategy, BBH Philippines central bank said it will use a mix of tools to manage capital inflows, since those inflows can “complicate” monetary policy.  Level of concern appears low, but…

Manuel Marfán, vice-governor of the Central Bank of Chile, told CNBC Europe Tuesday that the Chileans are concerned about what is happening in the currency markets. He said their first responsibility was to be "good global…

by Win Thin People’s Bank of China surprised markets with a 25 bp hike in early North American hours, taking the 1-year lending rate to 5.56% and the 1-year deposit rate to 2.5%.  This was the first official rate hike since December…

From Win Thin More and more EM policy-makers are complaining about currency strength, and we think it’s only a matter of time before other countries resort to capital controls to help ease appreciation pressures.  Chile President…

Opinion seems nearly universal that what we are currently experiencing is not the typical business cycle with which we are familiar. Besides being the end of a long speculative bubble, and the magnitudes involved, the significance of what…

Here is anther note from Andy Lees of UBS this morning, this time regarding the intra-Asian competition for natural resources with China as the lead actor. Andy writes (links added): You will have seen this morning Vietnam's state media…