Economics

Looking more closely at the data on U.S. GDP, a number of things emerge. First, I should add that the GDP deflator does not include import prices. So, one good reason it was so low last quarter is because it didn't factor in the 28% rise…

"The Economist" has developed the Big Mac Index as a way to determine if currencies are overvalued or undervalued. The thought is that a McDonald's Big Mac being pretty much the same everywhere around the world, one should expect the cost…

Given my recent prediction for a positive GDP number in Q2 for the U.S. and after another positive number from Q1, how could I maintain that the U.S. is in recession?It's simple. The commonly-held version of recession is misguided. Most…

My last two posts may leave the impression that I believe inflation to be the greatest concern facing the global economy. I certainly believe it is a problem but not the primary one. Deflation is the looming concern and much more…

We knew that didn't we? Well, in response to a questionnaire by Nationwide, the building society, consumers basically said savings is not important and that they don't save as a result. I'm willing to bet UK consumers will change their…

This morning I was in my usual routine, listening to 'Wake Up To Money," and the first guest came on the show from the British Chambers of Commerce. He was alarmed at the sudden slowdown in the UK. Consumer confidence is down ad shoppers…

Monetary policy has never been so interesting. With price increases in food and energy causing upheaval around the globe, citizens of the world are crying out for policy makers to get a handle on inflation. Yet, the global banking system…

Update 4 Jul 2008: see a fuller answer to this question at my new post: The ECB is right and the Fed is wrongThat's the question Ambrose Evans-Pritchard addressed in his blog yesterday. I am firmly in the deflationist camp, meaning…

I am firmly in the deflation camp. I worry about inflation over the short-term, but I still think the long-term threat to the global economy is deflation because asset price deflation will usher in deflationary forces. Nevertheless, there…

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in today's Telegraph of the BIS annual report, which is unusually cautious about the global economy. His article makes for sobering reading.Bill White, the departing chief economist at the BIS, in writing his…