Economic Data

The US trade figures for Q4 2012 came out this morning and they surprised analysts by showing a trade deficit that shrank 21% to $38.5 billion in December. According to Bloomberg News this was a lower deficit than any of 73 economists…

Jeremy Grantham's most recent quarterly report was released yesterday. Grantham expanded on his low-growth macro view with a number of additional insights based on both secular and political trends dominating the US economic picture. As…

Earlier in the week, I wrote a post on Latvia which explained why there is limited applicability of Latvia's travails with austerity for larger economies in the euro zone. One place where Latvia does have applicability, however, is Ireland.

As you may have heard already, the jobs numbers for the US came out and they confirmed that the US private sector continues to create 150-200,000 new jobs each month. This is consistent with moderate and does not indicate any signs of…

US GDP contracted at a 0.1% annualised rate in Q4 of 2012 according to preliminary estimates announced by the US government earlier today. This contraction was well below consensus estimates and comes as a shock to most of the analyst…

I don't write about jobless claims that much any more because I don't see the claims number as an interesting data point unless there are large shifts to the upside or downside. But since I am now looking for signs of recession, it behoves…

German GDP contracted by an unexpectedly large 0.5% in Q4 2012, according to preliminary estimates of the German government. The contraction is largely due to receding trade volume and does not necessarily mean Germany is in recession…

The last post predicted a recession in the United States for Q2 as a result of the fiscal standoff in the United States. However, as I have been largely upbeat about the underlying fundamentals in the United States, this call is predicated…

In China, I have argued many times, high growth is no longer compatible with a strengthening balance sheet. If China is growing at a rate that approaches or exceeds five or six percent, it is probably a safe bet that debt is rising faster…

The November US trade deficit widened sharply and this will likely prompt economists to cut estimates of Q4 GDP. The first estimate is to be released at the end of the month. The pace of growth had appeared to be about half the pace of…