Economic Data

A week ago, jobless claims rose to a multi-year high of 448,000 on the back of seasonal adjustments. This week is no different, but there are some telling changes that make this week's numbers more worrisome.First, jobless claims hit a…

Looking more closely at the data on U.S. GDP, a number of things emerge. First, I should add that the GDP deflator does not include import prices. So, one good reason it was so low last quarter is because it didn't factor in the 28% rise…

Lately, it seems the U.S. economy is flat on its back, with companies going bankrupt left and right. Yet, government statistics say quite the opposite. In the second quarter, the U.S. economy supposedly grew 1.9% annualized q-o-q. Sounds…

GDP stats came out for Q2. I'll get to that in a later post. We had 1.9% growth on the quarter, which was a decent lift from the stimulus package. But, what is really interesting is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which…

Jobless claims hit a 5-year high of 448K last week, leaving everyone under the impression that the employment numbers are deteriorating rapidly. However, the massive increase in jobless claims for the past week is very misleading because…

Given my recent prediction for a positive GDP number in Q2 for the U.S. and after another positive number from Q1, how could I maintain that the U.S. is in recession?It's simple. The commonly-held version of recession is misguided. Most…

U.S. jobless claims were 406,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 34,000 on the week prior and surpassing 400,000 for only the 3rd time this business cycle. While the numbers were large, they are very distorted by seasonal adjustment…

The LA Times got a front row seat with one of the Bureau of Labor Statistics staffers as she drove some of her 850 miles per month to record all of the prices that eventually make their way into the CPI. This is a nuts and bolts look into…

GDP revisions are coming out on July 31st right in the middle of Q2 earnings reports and before many banks get to report. These revisions could be significant according to Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg.As the revisions come…

The latest bit out from the U.S. is that the services sector has unexpectedly contracted.From Bloomberg News:U.S. service industries unexpectedly contracted in June as a gauge of prices soared to a record and employment reached an all-time…