ECB

Given Greek sentiment, in all likelihood, a referendum vote for the bailout agreement will fail. The question is “what then?” I would anticipate that, at a minimum, an an actual default which triggers credit default swaps with higher…

10-year Italian paper now trades at 6.17% and is poised to break through highs set in August. While the ECB and European leaders recognise that the ECB is the difference here, they are as yet unwilling to have the ECB declare itself…

Risk appetites returned in a big way in October, as equities, emerging markets, commodities and currencies all generally advanced and smartly so, recouping much of the ground lost in September. The events in the week ahead will likely set…

Here's Roger Bootle talking to Bloomberg's Maryam Nemazee about the deal hammered out yesterday to 'save Greece.' He is quite sceptical. First, the 120% debt to GDP figure that the deal is predicated on reaching is still high and assumes a…

Are these haircuts on Greek debt really such a good idea? Or are they really just a stopgap that will make things all the worse in the long-run? Sure, Mr. Market seems to think they’re fantastic. But then, Mr. Market has always been…

Let’s not get bogged down in numbers. The EFSF could have 440 billion euros behind, 1 trillion, 2 trillion, even 10 trillion euros, but it all comes back to the funding sources. The French are right: it makes no sense to implement this…

Gold is up big today and trading like the monetary printing presses are ready to kick into overdrive. We believe the recent Fed speak about QE3, possible BofJ intervention to weaken the yen, and growing expectations that tomorrow’s…

This is an update of a post I wrote at the beginning of September about European political dysfunction.

Italy argues that the ECB has made the crisis worse because it refuses to stand at the ready as a lender of last resort like other central banks, an argument I have also made. However, the Italians suggest that the EU is facing a liquidity…

France appears to have backed down in the face of a German-ECB joint position that strenuously objected to the EFSF becoming a bank to borrow from the ECB. Instead, it appears that the insurance/guarantee function of the EFSF is going to…