The ECB President admitted that budgets cuts and tax increases are contractionary -“in the short term” he added - but there are two ways to lessen their negative impact on growth: the confidence-enhancing effect that will follow the new…
Like many, we at the Global Macro Monitor believe the only solution to the European debt crisis is to write down bad debts, but we’re also realistic that it will take time because of the weak and highly levered balance sheets of many of the…
In sum, it seems clear that the next few days will not produce a long-term solution to the European debt crisis. However, the various nations and financial institutions realize the gravity of the situation, and it seems likely that they…
The ECB delivered the much expected 25 bp rate cut, though the decision was not unanimous. There was some immediate disappointment by some players positioned for the outside chance of a 50 bp move. The ECB addressed the liquidity and…
The dollar is trading slightly firmer ahead of today’s ECB rate decision and tomorrow’s summit. We expect the ECB to cut by 25bps, with a possibility of a 50bps cut; look to fade knee-jerk reaction. Australia’s employment much weaker than…
We could be wrong on this one and may have too much faith in the Eurocrats, but think of consequences if we are wrong? If the EU fails here, it will 1931 all over again and will put the “Great” in this rolling depression/recession.…
Germany and France are pushing for treaty changes. Under normal conditions treaty changes are a long drawn out process, subject to horse trading and vulnerable to domestic political considerations and the outcome is far from guaranteed.…