deflation

Internet is for data. Aside from emailing people, the whole purpose of using the Internet is to sift through data and find the piece of data you want: the lowest price, the funniest video, the best movie. So a service provider, the more…

UK Chancellor Osborne has now abandoned his 2020 budget surplus target. Combine this with the dovish statements by Bank of England governor Mark Carney yesterday and you can see some serious policy changes in play to minimize the near-term…

The unexpected ‘Leave’ victory in the recent referendum on EU membership introduces considerable political risk by elevating tail risk scenarios to reasonable worst case status. However, in a global economy that is already slow and already…

My base case is that the US stock market correction will not extend to major losses without a U.S.-based economic slowdown. Therefore, as potent as the Chinese devaluation crisis is as a signal for increasing global deflationary pressures,…

The macro environment right now is disinflationary as many countries struggle with product and labour ‘overcapacity’. The missing element is demand to meet supply. I want to talk about Fed monetary policy and the new Chinese currency regime…

I know the title of this post has a somewhat alarmist feel to it. However, I think it is the title that best describes the biggest macro theme now unfolding in the global economy. I have been in Grand Canyon country in the southwest of the…

It is quite possible that more than one end game will unfold in the months and years to come. For example, we could see a Greek Eurozone exit. Simultaneously, we could have a crisis unfolding across emerging markets, as the strong U.S.…

Deflationary pressures in China indicates that we probably need monetary tightening, not loosening. I know this sounds extremely counterintuitive, and so violates what we have learned about the world by assuming that the world looks a lot…

The Absolute Return Letter, November 2014 “The single most robust and striking fact about cross-national growth is regression to the mean.” -Lawrence Summers and Lant Pritchett Low growth is printed on the wall When financial markets…

There are no big themes dominating the news today. So it is a perfect time to hit a couple of themes with an economic and market theme approach. Let’s talk banks, Japanese trade, the currency wars and deflation.