debt restructuring

If the EU/IMF does this for Greece why not Ireland and Portugal? It is difficult to envision Ireland being able to go back to the markets next year as originally intended. Therefore, it too will likely require another round of assistance.…

The Europeans are clearly trying to get comfort on the exposure to Greece in their domestic financial institutions. And if they do get that comfort, we are going to see a soft restructuring. I expect this before year’s end.

While I acknowledge the real fears that central bankers have about the impact of a restructuring, this political dithering is making matters considerably worse. Clearly, burden sharing is needed and that means bondholders will have to take…

In my view, a CDS trigger could be a Lehman-style event, yes. Moreover, only a hard restructuring – meaning principal reduction would actually have any meaningful impact on peripheral CDS or interest rates. So, I expect the euro zone…

In the US, you have a weakening recovery, uneven job growth, less accommodative monetary policy, tightening fiscal policy at the federal and local levels, austerity in Europe and tightening in emerging markets coupled with secularly high…

German Finance Minister Schaeuble wrote a letter earlier this week to the ECB, IMF and euro zone finance ministers that appears to be putting the proverbial cat among the pigeons. The latter has been leaked to the press. He seems to be…

The creditors know that the game is up. All they can do is take as much as they can, as long as they can, pay themselves bonuses that are “free” from recapture by public prosecutors, and run to their offshore banking centers.

Yesterday, I had the pleasure of talking on CNBC along with Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman about the European sovereign debt crisis. I also wrote a piece in the New York Times about the same issue, concentrated on Greece. While…

With markets now contemplating some sort of debt “re-profiling” by Greece, we thought it would be helpful to summarize the two most recent major debt restructurings by an EM borrower for some guidance on what such a move could imply for…

Guest Author Polyvios Petropolous argues that the European Union must put in place the contingency plans for a Greek debt restructuring in secret before the plan is announced and executed. To end bailouts without such a plan in place would…