currencies

The Turkish lira is under pressure today, and is also due to some market concerns with central bank credibility. Like in Brazil, Turkey macroprudential policies simply have not worked.

We argue that a key driver lifting the euro has been the divergent monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the ECB.

The US dollar continued to weaken for the seventh consecutive day, with the dollar index hitting its lowest level since August 2008, ahead of the today’s FOMC meeting. In our view the Fed is likely to reaffirm its ultra-accommodative…

Brazil current account deficit came in at a wider than expected -$5.7 bln in March, but was fully covered by FDI totaling $6.8 bln that month. On a 12-month rolling basis, FDI was $60.4 bln vs. a current account gap of -$49.8 bln, pushing…

The Fed chairman is now crafting the Fed's public image just as politicians do. The press conference is a part of that pubic relations campaign. What should we expect then?

Whatever thunder the FOMC meeting usually has is being stolen this week by the first of Bernanke's press conference tomorrow. In fairness, the FOMC's statement is unlikely to change substantively from the mid-March statement. The press…

The US and UK report their first estimates of Q1 11 GDP this week. While the US economic data, like ISM readings suggest the US economy is enjoying reasonably good momentum, the GDP components are distinctly softer and suggest a…

The claims about “unsustainable deficits” gained new urgency this week as S&P warned that it was downgrading US federal government debt from stable to negative (see here for recent debate). This appeared to be a blatantly political…

Developments in EM over the past couple of weeks suggest to us that EM policy-makers are finally starting to “get it” with regards to inflation and a strong currency. This is a welcome, if somewhat tardy shift. In recent months, EM…

Dollar ended the week softer with AUD, JPY and SEK the strongest weekly performers in the G10. Fed introduces new level of transparency next Wednesday with regular press briefings. Euro likely to test December 2009 high, around $1.47, on…