currencies

For those who don't watch these currencies on a daily basis, these sell-offs seem to happen in spurts - almost at random. But there is a pattern here, particularly in the past few months. Investors are dumping these currencies during…

The US dollar stands at the fulcrum. Investment flows are leaving emerging markets, with currencies from Brazil,India,Indonesia and Mexico being hit the hardest over the last few sessions. The MSCI Emerging Market Index is off 4.5% over the…

Brazil's financial markets remain under pressure. In spite of some recent interventions, including a rate hike, the currency touched another multi-year low today. The market is "testing" the central bank with bets that the real has more…

The main tension in the foreign exchange market is between positions adjusting pressures, which are US dollar negative, and widely held ideas that the trajectory of growth and interest rate differentials favor the US, which is dollar…

By Marc Chandler The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered the 25 bp rate cut that was widely expected earlier this week.  Today, the Bank of England provided a new framework for its forward guidance, linking monetary policy to unemployment…

We think it would be a good idea to take a step back to see how EM FX and equities have performed during this recent bounce. Many EM currencies peaked against the dollar and the euro in early May, but then gave up ground, especially after…

The Federal Reserve delivered a one-two punch to market expectations today. First the FOMC minutes did not appear as hawkish as many expected. Several FOMC members wanted to see more job growth before pulling back on the throttle. Second,…

For India, oil prices currently stand at recent record highs (except possibly the oil India buys from Iran at a discount). Given that domestic petroleum is generally subsidized by the government, this spike is sure to put significant…

Interest rates will stay low for a long time - long as in years, not months. In the UK there is a risk that a weakening currency may lead to some modest increase in inflation but, generally speaking, inflation is not a problem, and all…

In the past two weeks, a lot has happened in Europe. I would say the general tenor of the news flow has been downbeat. Nevertheless, I am mostly positive on Europe. I don't see an imminent eurozone breakup, nor do I see a further dip into…