currencies

Highlights The US dollar is weaker across the board today, but largely confined to yesterday’s trading ranges.  Short-term participants are getting chopped up while long-term investors seem to have adjusted their positions and…

Highlights The US dollar is retaining its new found firm tone.  Position adjusting ahead of next week’s key events continues to dominate, encouraged by the loss of the dollar’s downside momentum.  Softer Australian CPI (2.8% in…

Into the European close, the euro has broken down further.  A break below $1.3835 warns of the increased risk of a return to last week's low near $1.3700.  The unwinding of long euro cross positions, especially against sterling…

Highlights The US dollar is still consolidating/correcting its recent decline against most of the major currencies today.  The notable exception is the British pound, where a considerably stronger than expected initial estimate of…

by Michael Pettis The seemingly imminent and inexorable rise of the renminbi as a major, even dominant, reserve and trading currency, has been almost as widely heralded as the equivalent rise of the Japanese yen just twenty years ago. Even…

Good interview on Bloomberg with David Blanchflower. He thinks the US is going to manipulate its exchange rate by printing a bunch of dollars, leading to currency revulsion and selling of dollars. Meanwhile everyone else is fixated on…

Given the push toward austerity, I want to make a few remarks about the intersection of full employment with trade and exchange rates. It all begins with the British austerity budget. In regards to that budget, recently presented by the…

This graph comes via the Council on Foreign Relations (hat tip James Fallows).   The Chinese were implementing a gradual revaluation before the credit crisis. They stopped revaluing their currency versus the USD in 2008. And…

Highlights The US dollar is broadly weaker in the wake of the G20 statement that appeared to encourage flowing in emerging markets and risk assets in general.  Leading the move is the Australian dollar and Swedish krona.  The…

by Annaly Capital Management We attended a conference this week hosted by Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, which is always a mix of long and short investment ideas and bullish and bearish macroeconomic observations. This one was no…