China to impose tariffs on $60 Billion of US goods, currency now suspected weapon as domestic…
Some thoughts on China's options as the trade war with the US escalates to an uncomfortable level
Browsing Tag
credit
The collapse of a major private equity group and echoes of Dubai World
When I heard about what happened to the private equity company Abraaj Group, based in Dubai, I immediately thought back to Dubai World nine years ago.
The procyclical forces behind the Fed’s rate hike train
At least initially, rate increases can be procyclical. Moreover, in this particular cycle, fiscal and regulatory policy are acting procyclically too. That means you need a lot of rate hikes to get a big anti-cyclical effect.
Margin debt is at a record high in US markets
The Federal Reserve has to be concerned about financial stability. When the credit markets become an integral facet sustaining asset markets, markets and the economy become interwoven in a bad way
The march higher in US interest rates will continue
Rising inflation expectations are pushing interest rates higher. But Fed moves matter more. If the data continue to show growth in the economy, markets will move toward the Fed and interest rates will rise.
Consumer credit: largest gain in 16 years and well ahead of expectations
Economic data coming out of the United States continue to show a robust consumer-led expansion. The latest consumer credit report showed the largest monthly gain since November 2001, with outstanding consumer credit rising by $27.95…
US economic growth still in the 2ish% channel
In the aftermath of the shale oil bust that sent the US economy to stall speed in 2015, growth has rebounded, but only to a sort of 2%ish level. Continued low inflation insures further low nominal GDP growth aka secular stagnation. But so…
The Fed’s financial stability concerns, auto subprime edition
Below are some data points from recent credit statistics and analyses, showing trends in the auto credit sector.
Why commercial real estate will be central to the next credit bust
On Sunday, macro strategist Lawrence McDonald made three tweets about corporate real estate I think merit highlighting. They show a corporate real estate market that has been white hot during this particular business cycle. And that means…
On the Fed’s pause due to dual-barrelled monetary tightening
Fed Governor Jerome Powell recommended a June hike and 2017 balance sheet reductions, in one of the last public speeches by a Fed official before the June FOMC meeting. When the Fed follows Powell’s game plan, we will be in the unchartered…