credit

Rising inflation expectations are pushing interest rates higher. But Fed moves matter more. If the data continue to show growth in the economy, markets will move toward the Fed and interest rates will rise.

Economic data coming out of the United States continue to show a robust consumer-led expansion. The latest consumer credit report showed the largest monthly gain since November 2001, with outstanding consumer credit rising by $27.95…

In the aftermath of the shale oil bust that sent the US economy to stall speed in 2015, growth has rebounded, but only to a sort of 2%ish level. Continued low inflation insures further low nominal GDP growth aka secular stagnation. But so…

Below are some data points from recent credit statistics and analyses, showing trends in the auto credit sector.

On Sunday, macro strategist Lawrence McDonald made three tweets about corporate real estate I think merit highlighting. They show a corporate real estate market that has been white hot during this particular business cycle. And that means…

Fed Governor Jerome Powell recommended a June hike and 2017 balance sheet reductions, in one of the last public speeches by a Fed official before the June FOMC meeting. When the Fed follows Powell’s game plan, we will be in the unchartered…

World views derived both from Austrian Economics and Post-Keynesian Economics suggest that so-called secular stagnation and the resulting political radicalization in Europe and the United States are here to stay. Here's why.

From an economic perspective, the coming slowdown in production will dent GDP growth.

Given recent hawkish Fed statements and the potential for even more than three hikes, all of this is bullish for longer-duration Treasuries but much less so for auto ABS, high yield and emerging markets.

Increased delinquencies in the auto sector will spell trouble given the high LTVs of loans and lower credit scores of borrowers. And I am troubled by the OCC’s depiction of the commercial real estate sector; we could see heavy loan losses…