contagion

The three notch downgrade of Greece from Ba1 to B1 by Moody’s was a bit surprising, even to jaded followers of rating agency behavior. While we have remained negative on the country, is it really as bad off as Mongolia, Sri Lanka, Belarus,…

With yields on Portugal now above 7.4%, many are predicting Portugal will soon need a bailout because it cannot reduce its debt load with yields that high. Portugal simply cannot grow its economy fast enough to pare debt with yields that…

We note that uncertainty regarding potential oil supply disruptions is in a sense higher now than it was during the first and second Gulf Wars. Then, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Saddam would be defeated and oil facilities…

By Win Thin The Libyan situation continues to deteriorate, with the expected impact on oil (up) and EM (down) being seen today. Libyan leader Qaddafi is hanging on to power despite reported defections by diplomats and soldiers, while his…

By Win Thin Portugal remains in the market spotlight as its 10-year yield remains above 7% for the 10th straight day. Furthermore, today Portugal’s 5-year yield broke above 7% for the first time and continues the pattern that we saw with…

By Win Thin There is no real news behind the recent underperformance of Portugal bonds, as it appears that markets are simply getting more nervous as the country’s 10-year yields stay above 7% for the fifth straight day today and for 10 of…

by Win Thin Saudi Oil Minister Al-Naimi said that crude oil prices between $70-80 per barrel are “appropriate.”  OPEC Secretary-General el-Badri said his group would add oil output in the event of any supply disruptions, pledging…

Piggybacking off of my last post highlighting Nouriel Roubini's talk with Simon Constable, I wanted to present three videos from Roubini's appearance on NBC Europe this morning. In the earlier pre-Davos Wall Street Journal interview,…

By Marc Chandler and the BBH Currency Strategy Team Europe’s debt crisis remains among the most important factors in the global capital markets. By some market-based measures, like interest rate spreads and credit default swap prices, the…

By Win Thin Even though Greece, Portugal, and Ireland bonds are trading firm today, don’t be fooled into thinking markets are getting more constructive.  ECB has reportedly been actively buying today, and so bond spreads are not…