Demographic Time Bombs – They May Not be What You Think
Long term (over 20-30 years) demographics will favor the U.S. over Germany and China in international trade.
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Browsing Tag
China
PBoC Tightening Unlikely To Be Aggressive
by Win Thin News service is quoting China government economist saying that the central bank is seen as behind the curve and may need to hike twice more this year. He added that an alternative would be hikes in commercial bank reserve…
Timothy Geithner’s Letter to the G20 Finance Ministers
I will be on BNN today at 12 Noon ET talking about the G20 amongst other topics, so I wanted to highlight this issue. Here's the text first (with added bolding) and then a few comments: First, G20 countries should commit to undertake…
If you print a trillion, I’ll print a trillion – and other instances of behavior leading…
I didn't make this title up, but it's so clever I wish I had. Andy Xie, the Former Morgan Stanley Asia economist used this as the sub-header in a column in today's Caixin editorial. Xie doesn't buy the G-20 rhetoric that all is fine in the…
Yuan in Hong Kong: The Logic
One of the surprises of the year has been the increased internationalization of the yuan, even though the capital account has not been liberated and the currency remains tightly managed. We were skeptical of the significance of the yuan…
More Thoughts On China
by Win Thin We don’t think that the timing of the PBOC hike was any coincidence, as the monthly data deluge from China is scheduled for October 21. It appears that price pressures and bank lending remain too strong for the…
PBoC rate hike small move and very late
by Michael Pettis The PBoC has just announced that it is hiking the one-year lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points. Here is what Bloomberg says: China raised its benchmark lending and deposit rates for the first time since 2007…
PBOC Surprises Markets and Triggers EM Profit-Taking
by Win Thin People’s Bank of China surprised markets with a 25 bp hike in early North American hours, taking the 1-year lending rate to 5.56% and the 1-year deposit rate to 2.5%. This was the first official rate hike since December…
China Increases Depo Rate Stoking a Return to Dollars
Highlights The US dollar has been put back in the driver seat as the Central Bank of China raised its one-year lending and deposit rate by 25 bps. In effect, the move by the Chinese has drawn capital out of risk and reaffirmed the…
China’s Indirect Resource Grab
Here is anther note from Andy Lees of UBS this morning, this time regarding the intra-Asian competition for natural resources with China as the lead actor. Andy writes (links added): You will have seen this morning Vietnam's state media…