China

The Chinese Seven Day Repo Rate has skyrocketed to a 3-year high, suggesting a cash shortage as credit tightens.

Coal prices are surging ahead even as most other commodities pull back, spurred on by expectations that metallurgical and thermal coal production will again fail to meet rising global demand this year. The result? Record profits for major…

The last time the curve was this flat was during the panic in 2008. So I am still concerned that the potential for a more abrupt slowing exists. So far growth remains robust.

I am concerned that the emerging markets have overheated and are now reversing direction quickly. Policy rates are still low when adjusted for inflation. But, given the economic weakness now manifest across North America and Europe, the…

This chart is for year over year ‘real’ GDP growth. Note the recurring first quarter spikes followed by dips, presumably due to front loading annual state spending and lending.

To sum up: Non-performing loans look to be a full 10% of Chinese GDP. That’s high. The Chinese government is confronting this writedown problem head-on. While a number of analysts have opinions on the measures just taken, it is far from…

The immediate problem is the excess capital investment and the costly maintenance of the projects it has spawned. Longer-term, Asia's growth prospects look good.

What is driving the increase in the RMB-denominated trade is probably not any preference to transact in RMB but rather speculative demand for RMB. That sounds pretty plausible.

Jim Rogers is bullish on Asia. In a twenty-minute interview with the BBC, he explains why? Hat tip Paul Kedrosky. Like Paul, "I find many of his rhetorical tricks maddening" but it is an informative interview nonetheless. Videos below

An unsustainable rise in debt is, for me, one of the key indicators that the investment-driven model has passed its useful life and is generating negative growth while posting positive growth numbers. This is why I spend so much time trying…