bonds

Fear mongers want you to be scared to death that interest rates will skyrocket. As I have said many times in the past, long Treasury rates reflect inflation and interest rate expectations. Full stop. The default risk isn’t there since…

Apparently, market professionals are willing to accept short-term government paper at auction with no discount through four weeks.

Yields are incredibly low in the investment grade space. So that has put pressure on managers to get some yield pick up. Could European high yield be it, not just for European fund managers but for Americans as well?

The following is an outline for a proposed new Greek government bond issue to provide all required medium term euro funding for Greece on very attractive terms. The new bond issue includes an addition to the default provisions that…

In Montier’ view, “value investing is the only risk-averse way of investing” that addresses tail risk. He identifies, value risk, fundamental risk and financial risk as three main risk characteristics value investing captures. The subtext…

I want to take a look at the latest news concerning the Greek situation using the political framework I laid out earlier in the month.On the whole, things are proceeding pretty much as anticipated.

Greece is now getting a second bailout and the Greek government is attempting to get the austerity measures upon which the bailout is conditioned passed through its legislature. I think largely the same issues still apply as in May.…

The Europeans are clearly trying to get comfort on the exposure to Greece in their domestic financial institutions. And if they do get that comfort, we are going to see a soft restructuring. I expect this before year’s end.

I expect a soft restructuring sometime in 2011 followed by a certain degree of dithering and a hard restructuring down the line. But, of course, the tail risk is there.

If E.U. leaders are smart, they will understand that the turmoil they fear from a Greek restructuring will be much worse if that default is a unilateral one forced by a population that has taken to the streets.