bonds

While the emerging markets are getting a bit of a reprieve today, it bears noting that the move to so-called safe haven assets and currencies has begun. This suggests to me that George Magnus’ warning about this emerging markets crisis must…

Themes for today: US economic growth is poised to be decent in 2014 Europe will recover but not at the same pace as the US EM is really a China contagion story. I am concerned but not alarmed Watch high risk sectors like leveraged…

Right now, everyone is talking about an emerging markets crisis due to the simultaneous turmoil in several emerging markets. I am not concerned about this being a full-blown crisis yet. At the same time, I do want to use this as a launchpad…

By Marc Chandler Political developments in Italy are happening faster than Prime Minister Letta can maneuver. The economy he is overseeing is the poster child of ECB President Draghi's assessment of a weak, fragile and uneven recovery in…

By Marc Chandler We argue that part of the euro's rise over the past several months reflects a reassessment of Spain's outlook. Many global investors had been under-weight Europe though most of H1 13, favoring the US and Japanese…

By Marc Chandler We argue that part of the euro's rise over the past several months reflects a reassessment of Spain's outlook. Many global investors had been under-weight Europe though most of H1 13, favoring the US and Japanese equities.…

Most investors are expecting 2014 to be a good year economically and for this to translate into a good year for investing. But we have never been deep into a business cycle with rates at zero or with no chance of a Fed hike on the horizon.…

When the Eurozone moved toward the backloaded austerity paradigm, last Spring, I started to change my tune on Europe. In June, I wrote that we should watch second derivatives in the Eurozone, because the change in change numbers are a…

I have some interesting ideas on the eurozone regarding France, a housing decline and its divergence from the rest of Europe. But I am going to save that for a later post. Suffice it to say the German - French spread is widening; it is at…

In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty…