bailout

Equity markets paring back recent gains after one-week recovery ahead of Slovakia EFSF vote. Slovakia is the last country to vote on EFSF enhancement; “Yes” vote is not a done deal. News reports indicate China’s SWF is buying bank shares;…

If you recall Global Macro Monitor’s post on Europe's Bank Problem last week, the IMF chart showed very well how banks were struggling to wean themselves from short-term funding sources and increase tangible common equity. The Belgians had…

As we reported on Friday, Dexia, the troubled Franco-Belgian bank, has been nationalised over the weekend. At the time, I indicated this would be a negative for the sovereign’s creditworthiness. Moody’s, the ratings agency, agrees and has…

Another informative chart from the IMF showing the fundamental problem in Europe’s banking system - excessive leverage and dependence on wholesale funding. Add to that overexposure to highly indebted sovereigns with deteriorating credit…

Turning to foreign sources of capital will only aggravate the problem from which Europe already suffers. Even assuming that developing countries are willing to take on risks that Europeans find prohibitive, their help will not improve…

This is going to be a relatively long post. But I think it’s important. I have been meaning to update my thinking about the “Fake Recovery” which I heralded in early 2009 as the economy in the US began to turn. My view is that without…

Asia and European session dominated by safe haven flows; Fitch & S&P both downgrade New Zealand. Germany’s upper house and Austria vote on EFSF measures; we still feel EFSF 2.0 is still not enough. Brazil’s budget and inflation…

Dollar is paring back its overnight gains as Germany ratifies changes to EFSF; European banks higher. Ratification of the EFSF sets the tone for a shift in the political agenda; Q2 US GDP expected higher. Brazil’s August wholesale IGP-M…

Most of the writers whose work appear on this blog have long warned that the extend and pretend strategy in Europe would fail. Now, it seems that Europe is moving to a hard restructuring for Greece and recapitalisation for bank creditors.…

Market sentiment continue to improve modestly; European stocks and US futures both advance. Finland ratifies changes to EFSF, Germany votes tomorrow; EUR/USD trades just ahead of 1.37. EM price action of IDR & KRW reinforces themes;…