Author

Win Thin 153 posts 0 comments

Win Thin is the Head of Emerging Markets Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Win received his Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University in 1995, specializing in international and development Economics. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983.

Markets

More emerging markets downside ahead

Win Thin Sep 21, 2011

Despite pockets of relative outperformance, EM currencies have fared terribly this month and bring to mind parallels with the great EM sell-off of 2008-2009. While a revisiting of the 2008-2009 lows seems too aggressive right now, we are…

Markets

Continued Policy Mistakes in Brazil

Win Thin Sep 19, 2011

BRL is one of the worst EM performers today, and continues a string of underperformance (-10.8% vs. USD) that began with the unexpected 50 bp rate cut August 31. Since then, only HUF has done worse at -11.5%. It’s really a confluence of…

Markets

EMEA central banks have moved into dovish mode

Win Thin Sep 16, 2011

In the EMEA space, central banks from Czech Republic, Hungary, South Africa, and Turkey all meet next week. We don’t see any change from these four central banks and in general we believe EM central banks have moved into dovish wait-and-see…

Markets

Some Thoughts On The ECB/Fed Announcement

Win Thin Sep 15, 2011

Today’s announcement that the ECB has coordinated with the Fed to give unlimited US dollar access to European banks through year-end was taken positively by markets. The euro strengthened and equities rallied. Clearly, this was something…

Markets

Asian central bank preview: on hold for now

Win Thin Sep 7, 2011

In the Asian EM space, central banks from Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and South Korea all meet this Thursday. We don’t see any change from these four central banks and in general we believe EM central banks have moved into dovish…

Markets

Brazil Surprise Rate Cut To Weigh On BRL

Win Thin Sep 1, 2011

While most EM central banks have moved into dovish wait-and-see stances, very few have cut rates during this cycle. Besides Brazil, only Turkey has this distinction and we’ve seen markets punish the lira in recent weeks. While the…

Economy

Swiss Franc Exposes Risks To Hungary Banking Sector, Sovereign Rating

Win Thin Aug 13, 2011

We’ve gotten some more clarity on the Hungarian government’s housing support scheme. Due to the unprecedented strength of the Swiss franc, implementation of the FX part has been moved forward one month to September from October. The main…

Markets

Emerging Markets Continue To Outperform Developed Markets

Win Thin Aug 11, 2011

We believe that this most recent correction in EM markets will help fundamentals to matter more. The easy part of this EM rally is over, so it will become much more important for global investors to continue focusing on the fundamentals. We…

Markets

US Downgrade Shines A Light On Other Weak AAA Credits

Win Thin Aug 8, 2011

With the US downgrade now out of the way, we think market attention will swing back to other Developed Markets countries that are facing downward pressure on ratings too. Here is a summary of our most recent ratings outlooks for Developed…

Markets

Brazil: capital control distortions upon distortions

Win Thin Aug 4, 2011

It is very clear that Brazil is moving further and further away from the orthodox model due to its obsession with the strong real. While the IMF said today in its Article IV discussions with Brazil that capital controls are an “appropriate”…