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Win Thin 153 posts 0 comments

Win Thin is the Head of Emerging Markets Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Win received his Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University in 1995, specializing in international and development Economics. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983.

Economy

Some Thoughts On The Ratings Agencies

Win Thin Dec 17, 2010

While the Moody’s downgrade of Ireland isn’t any surprise, coming on the heels of S&P’s move last week from A+ to BBB+, the sheer magnitude of five notches warrants a mention. We haven’t seen anything like this since the Asian…

Markets

Turkey Rate Cut Very Negative For Turkish Lira, Further Losses Likely

Win Thin Dec 16, 2010

As we feared, Turkey central bank cut rates by 50 bp to 6.5%. Before the recent comments by Deputy Governor Basci, the bank was saying that rates were headed higher towards the end of next year. Latest central bank survey shows market was…

Economy

Brazil Monetary Policy Committee Minutes Says Acting ‘Fast and Powerful’

Win Thin Dec 16, 2010

Minutes from the December 7/8 COPOM meeting in Brazil are worth commenting on. The central bank put a lot of weight on its decision to hike reserve requirements December 3, calling it a “fast and powerful” tool to contain domestic…

Economy

On The South Korean Bank Levy

Win Thin Dec 15, 2010

Press is reporting that the government may impose a bank levy next year of about 0.1% on what it terms “non-core overseas debt.” It appears that the authorities are getting more serious about addressing the nation’s high short-term debt…

Markets

Eurozone Contagion: S&P Moves Belgium To Negative Outlook

Win Thin Dec 14, 2010

by Win Thin Here are some more thoughts on S&P moving its outlook on Belgium’s AA+ rating to negative from stable. S&P noted that it may cut the rating by one notch within the next six months if the major political parties do not…

Markets

Policy Uncertainty To Weigh On Turkish Lira

Win Thin Dec 13, 2010

by Win Thin There seems to be some policy uncertainty brewing in Turkey, which we view as negative for the lira. Today, central bank Deputy Governor Basci published a paper on the bank’s website that suggested a combination of interest…

Economy

Some Thoughts On Potential PBOC Tightening Path

Win Thin Dec 10, 2010

We don’t want to get too caught up trying to guess the timing of the PBOC’s moves. Suffice to say that over the next year, it will continue to use a combination of policy rate hikes, reserve requirement hikes, and currency strength to help…

Economy

Is An Italian Downgrade Next?

Win Thin Dec 9, 2010

Here our thoughts regarding the rumored downgrade of Italy. While we remain negative on the ratings for peripheral euro zone, we don't think a downgrade of Italy is a sure thing. Its numbers have always been bad, and have in fact stayed…

Economy

EM Ratings Trajectory Remains Positive

Win Thin Dec 9, 2010

by Win Thin Ratings news from EM stands in stark contrast to what we’re seeing in the developed world. Yesterday, Uruguay was upgraded two notches. Today, S&P moved the outlook on Thailand’s BBB+ rating to stable from negative, noting…

Economy

Ireland: Another Day, Another Downgrade

Win Thin Dec 9, 2010

by Win Thin Here are some more thoughts regarding the Fitch downgrade of Ireland by three notches to BBB+. The agency cited the mounting costs of the banking system rescue as a major factor behind the move, and is consistent with what we…