Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
Author
Sober Look 181 posts 0 comments
Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education. Follow him on his blog or twitter.
Given the relatively low default rates in auto loans, banks' credit departments have loosened lending requirements.
Five facts about energy sources you should know
We've had a number of questions on energy sources in the United States - particularly with respect to the generation of electricity. Here are a few interesting facts about recent trends that hopefully help clarify some of the confusion…
Low inflation is creating a QE trap
Weak inflation readings in the US continue provide the Fed with the rationale to maintain securities purchases in what amounts to a "QE trap". With the PCE inflation measure once again below one percent, the FOMC doves fear that "taper"…
Household formation and affordability are headwinds in the US housing market
While the US housing market remains relatively robust, it is likely to face a couple of headwinds going forward. One is the lower affordability index. The other is the recent slowdown in net household formation.
Financial obligations rising for renters, falling for homeowners
With wages stagnant, the proportion of income going into rent is on the rise. While homeowners have been able to reduce their monthly payments to the lowest level in decades via mortgage refinancing and cutting back on credit card usage,…
Covenant-light loans are on the rise
The higher demand for leveraged loans is helping to gradually increase leverage of buyout transactions. But a more alarming trend is the sharp relaxation of lending terms - the so-called "cov-lite" (covenant-light) deals. Over 70% of recent…
US on track for only 1.6% real GDP growth in 2013
The US is now on track to reach only 1.6% real GDP growth for 2013 - in spite of the extraordinary amount of central bank stimulus. The sad part about this weakness is that to some extent it has been self-inflicted. Policy uncertainty,…
Manufacturing: In US, first fall since 2009 as Eurozone pulls ahead
The PMI survey shows the first fall in manufacturing output in the US since September 2009. Eurozone PMIs are moving in the other direction.
Chart comparisons to an earlier period of accommodative US monetary policy
Here is an observation. The last couple of years show some interesting similarities to the period ending in early 2005. The reason for such a comparison is that then, just as now the Fed began to gradually exit its highly accommodative…
Reasons behind the sell-off in crude oil
WTI crude oil has undergone a substantial correction in the last few days. What's going on?