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Sober Look 181 posts 0 comments

Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education. Follow him on his blog or twitter.

Markets

The leveraged loan market is on fire

Sober Look Feb 25, 2013

Sub-investment-grade loans continue to perform well, driven by demand for floating rate product. As an example, the chart below compares the performance of Invesco's "Senior Income" fund (VVR) - which mostly holds loans of…

Economy

Will the corporate sector expansion peak in spring once again?

Sober Look Feb 18, 2013

Historical data shows conditions peaking in late winter to early spring and declining later in the year.

Economy

Americans face bad news at the pump

Sober Look Feb 18, 2013

This is clearly going to create headwinds for consumer sentiment and ultimately spending patterns, particularly when combined with other issues consumers are facing this year.

Economy

Rise in gasoline prices may pose risk to consumer sentiment

Sober Look Feb 10, 2013

As the winter storm pounded the north eastern United States on Friday, gasoline futures hit another high. The March delivery contract broke $3.06, indicating that retail prices for fuel will be going up.

Economy

Inflationary pressure in Brazil is building

Sober Look Feb 10, 2013

Brazilian central bank's highly accommodative policy in the past year and the recent weakness in the Brazilian real has helped boost growth.

Markets

The ECB staying out of currency wars… for now

Sober Look Feb 7, 2013

Once again some analysts in Europe question the potency of the so-called currency wars launched by Japan and the US. The euro-yen currency cross has had an unprecedented rally, changing the export landscape where Japan and Europe…

Markets

Currency wars should provide support for precious metals

Sober Look Jan 16, 2013

As nations see Japan's success in weakening the yen (see discussion), some begin to take notice. Emerging markets nations often attempted to devalue their currencies in the past in order to improve competitiveness. But these days developed…

Economy

Stall speed: Goldman cuts US Q4 GDP forecast to 1%

Sober Look Dec 5, 2012

By Sober Look As discussed earlier (see post), US manufacturing data for November shows shrinking inventories. This is true for both the ISM survey ... ISM Inventories index (source: ISM) as well as the Markit PMI index: US Markit…

Markets

Residential construction will not materially impact US GDP growth

Sober Look Oct 9, 2012

Some are expecting the latest surge in US home construction to lift economic growth. Even though it is indeed a positive development, construction however will have only a limited contribution to the GDP.

Markets

Retail investors jump into syndicated loans

Sober Look Sep 25, 2012

By Sober Look High Yield corporate loans (sometimes also called "institutional", "syndicated", "leveraged", "par", or "bank" loans) continue to be in high demand. And it's not only hedge funds and CLOs (see post) who like this product.…