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Edward Hugh 152 posts 0 comments

Ed was a macro economist based in Barcelona, who specialized in growth and productivity theory, demographic processes and their impact on macro performance, and the underlying dynamics of migration flows.

He was a lovely person and a prolific blogger in his time. Ed’s analyses can be found on his “Don’t Shoot the Messenger” blog on www.economonitor.com, at the India Economy Blog, A Fistful of Euros, Global Economy Matters and Demography Matters. He was a founding member of all these weblogs.

Economy

Can Italy Grow Its Way Out of Debt?

Edward Hugh Jul 5, 2011

What follows is simply a follow-up note to my earlier (Elephant in The Euro Room) piece on Italy. The decision by S&P to put Italian sovereign debt on negative outlook, and the subsequent announcement by Moody’s that it was considering…

Economy

Red Lights Flashing For Eurozone Growth

Edward Hugh Jun 26, 2011

The June Flash PMI reports, which were out on Thursday, do not make for agreeable reading, in the sense that while the French and German economies both continued to expand during the month, their rate of expansion, and in particular in the…

Economy

Nine Reasons Why Spain Is Not Different

Edward Hugh Jun 26, 2011

I have decided to single Klaus Baader out for special treatment here because he conveniently brings together, in a clear and succinct fashion, a number of arguments which are widely accepted and used by both analysts and policy makers about…

Economy

India’s Economy Hits What Has To Be A Very Welcome “Soft Patch”

Edward Hugh Jun 26, 2011

India is still an emerging economy, one which has made great strides forward in recent years. And despite many difficulties India has remained a democracy since independence. It is a country where human rights are by and large respected,…

Economy

To QE3 Or Not To QE3, That Is The Question

Edward Hugh Jun 7, 2011

So what are the realistic chances of another bout of QE right now? Well according to Robin Harding they are pretty slim, and it is hard not to agree with him (due to the anticipated voter backlash in the US), yet among professional analysts…

Economy

BELLS in Hell that Don’t Go Ting-a-Ling-a-Ling

Edward Hugh Jun 2, 2011

The BELLS are a group of four countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) who in their wisdom decided to adopt and then stick “come hell or high water” to a currency peg with to Euro. Thus was opened one of the more interesting and…

Political Economy

Italy is the elephant in the euro room, not Spain

Edward Hugh May 23, 2011

Looking through the latest round of EU GDP data, one thing is becoming increasingly obvious: when it comes to future monetary policy decisions at the ECB, and to exactly how many more interest rate hikes we are going to see, then the…

Political Economy

Greece: Last Exit To Nowhere?

Edward Hugh May 15, 2011

If the strongest argument against going back to the Drachma always was that this would imply default, now that default is coming, why not allow Greece to devalue? As Krugman says, the issue isn’t whether Greece would openly decide to exit…

Economy

The Great Greek And Spanish GDP Mystery – One Hypothesis

Edward Hugh May 15, 2011

Many an economic eyebrow must have been raised last Friday when Europe’s first quarter GDP data was released, and people discovered that the Greek economy had suddenly surged forward, rising by 0.8% over the level it had attained in the…

Economy

Is There A Eurozone Credit Cycle?

Edward Hugh May 9, 2011

One of the key premises underpinning the establishment of the Euro as a common currency to be shared by a number of individual national states rather than one single nation was the central idea that the several economies of the…