Quick thought on how jobless claims matter
I have heard some people dismiss jobless claims as a data series for two distinct reasons that I want to flag given my view that claims data matter.
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Was it right to be on recession watch in 2016?
We are now three months into 2017 and we can look back on 2016 as a fairly good year economically for the US. So given that backdrop, was it right to worry about a recession in 2016? And what does that say about 2017? Here’s my view below.
The US economy is doing OK right now
The composite picture I am getting shows the US economy still in that 2%ish channel it has been in for some time. This is lower than certainly President Trump wants and it is also lower than growth levels at cyclical peaks in the past. But…
Brexit is more important politically than it is economically
Today’s news coverage is non-stop Brexit. And this is a big event. But it is the political implications which matter; the economic impact will be more muted.
Subprime auto delinquency rate at highest level since financial crisis
Increased delinquencies in the auto sector will spell trouble given the high LTVs of loans and lower credit scores of borrowers. And I am troubled by the OCC’s depiction of the commercial real estate sector; we could see heavy loan losses…
Did the Greek bailout money go to ‘liquor and women’?
It is tragic that this ‘liquor and women’ quote is the discussion dominating headlines as the EU celebrates the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Rome.
Jobless claims up somewhat to 258,000 in week to 18 March 2017
Overall, the figures tell us the US employment picture is the best it has been since the Great Recession.
Some thoughts on Dijsselbloem’s ‘liquor and women’ intervention
Last week, I wrote how the Labour Party in the Netherlands suffered a historic defeat in parliamentary elections because voters questioned their priorities - and how this is emblematic of Western social democratic parties everywhere. And as…
You should be concerned about falling car prices and Ally’s profit warning
Yesterday, Ally Financial warned that profits would underperform expectations. Now, they dd not say that profits would fall or that they were taking credit writedowns. Neverthless, the warning is an important marker and should be of grave…
Will Brexit’s trigger, now set for 29 March, mean recession?
British Prime Minister Theresa May will trigger her country’s exit from the EU on 29 March, a spokesperson for the Prime Minister has confirmed. Afterwards, the clock will be ticking, as the UK will have two years to wind up any…