Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Markets

How monetary policy entrenches secular stagnation

Edward Harrison Jun 21, 2017

Recent statements by monetary authorities in Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom tells us rate hikes are possible in all three this year. This trio of English-speaking G7 nations is at a different phase of the monetary policy…

Economy

Abenomics and Japanese growth

Edward Harrison Jun 20, 2017

Only during the Great Recession did nominal GDP break out of a tight range – and then, it did so to the downside. We are nowhere near the top of the range now, nor should we expect to be anytime soon.

Political Economy

How Brexit makes Britain poorer, forcing Carney to stay his hand

Edward Harrison Jun 20, 2017

The risk in the UK is an inflationary recession. For now, Mark Carney is resisting a rate hike. But how long will the Bank of England hold out? And how long can British consumers keep spending if real wages are falling? Two things would…

Markets

Is the new rout in oil getting worrying?

Edward Harrison Jun 20, 2017

Earlier this morning, the New York Mercantile Exchange was quoting delivery for light sweet crude in July at $43.30. That’s a far cry from the $55 average that analysts had expected for 2017 as recently as last month. And all indications…

Markets

The Fed will continue to tighten despite inflation below target

Edward Harrison Jun 19, 2017

New York Fed President William Dudley has reiterating Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s determination to push forward with interest rate hikes despite inflation below 2%. The Fed will continue to have this stance unless and until economic data…

Economy

Could the UK be headed for an inflationary recession?

Edward Harrison Jun 15, 2017

The Bank of England kept its key policy rate unchanged at a record low 0.25% . Three dissents show how a weak currency and rising inflation are making it harder to keep rates low. The worst case scenario is an inflationary recession, which…

Markets

The Fed’s financial stability concerns, auto subprime edition

Edward Harrison Jun 14, 2017

Below are some data points from recent credit statistics and analyses, showing trends in the auto credit sector.

Markets

The Fed’s financial stability concerns before its June hike

Edward Harrison Jun 13, 2017

Hiking rates now after a monster commercial real estate cycle has already developed is akin to closing the stable doors after the horse has already bolted. But this may be a concern of the Fed. Let’s see what the Spring 2017 OCC Risk…

Markets

Why commercial real estate will be central to the next credit bust

Edward Harrison Jun 13, 2017

On Sunday, macro strategist Lawrence McDonald made three tweets about corporate real estate I think merit highlighting. They show a corporate real estate market that has been white hot during this particular business cycle. And that means…

Political Economy

Why talk of a soft Brexit is misplaced

Edward Harrison Jun 13, 2017

I have been hearing a lot of pundits talk about how the UK election changes the outlook for Brexit. And a lot of this stuff is misguided because the election doesn’t change the outlook in any discernible way. Here’s why.

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