Latvia as the new Argentina redux
Has Paul Krugman been reading my stuff? He is certainly thinking like me regarding emerging market risk. He has a post today talking about Latvia as the new Argentina.
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TED spread signals better conditions
Despite the gloom and doom that you might read right here, things are certainly much better in credit markets than at the height of the credit crisis. Of course we still have a long way to go, but this chart from Bloomberg of the TED…
Links: 2008-12-23 – global recession, China and Thoma
Greetings to all. This may be one of my last posts before Christmas. So forgive me by raining on your festivities with some dismal notes on the dismal science.
And by the way, who ever called Economics a science? Economics seems more akin…
China is set up for a big fall
The punderati has been especially kind to China. As the global recession takes hold, the conventional wisdom has moved from the largely debunked de-coupling of China to a story where China slows, but much less so than the west. But is…
Madoff as a signal to go for “regulation heavy”
On a recent Bloomberg Radio with Tom Keene broadcast, Harvey Pitt and Arthur Levitt, two former SEC Chairman were guests. Levitt made the suggestion that hedge funds had once been given the choice of "regulation-light" or…
Government Bond Bubble
I have been arguing for some time that the credit bubble has been replaced by a government bond bubble because much of the liquidity pumped out by the world's central banks is not going to increased lending. As this money must be invested…
Kuwait: A harbinger of Mideast deficits to come
With oil prices having plummeted, one should expect Middle Eastern oil exporters' budgets to implode. What were budget surpluses will quickly turn to deficits, stoking civil unrest amongst the burgeoning masses. Very high population growth…
Will Asia’s downturn be worse than America’s?
Below is an article that has been syndicated on a number of sites in the Indian press (hat tip Ravin) which challenges the common wisdom that Asia, and particularly China, will weather the downturn better than the U.S. While the articles…
Links: 2008-12-20
Federal Reserve is damned either way as it battles debt and deflation - Telegraph
Federal Reserve is damned either way as it battles debt and deflation - Telegraph
Xstrata falls on fears over covenant breaches - Telegraph
US Fed's…