bonds

Successful Spanish and Greek bill auctions and better than expected German IFO caught the market wrong-footed, if the record net speculative short at the IMM is anything to go by. The euro has shot up to almost $1.3090 and pulled up the…

The country’s debt dynamics are far from unsustainable at this point, but given the weakening in the country’s export performance and the steady unwinding of the housing boom we can now anticipate I would expect growth to be weaker than…

The ECB is seen to be the key protagonist and the pressure is more acute on it to act. Yet it steadfastly refuses. The other solution that has been advocated is a joint European bond. It is not going to be forthcoming any time soon. Such…

Banks can borrow as much as they want from the central for three years at the refi rate. They are limited only by their desire and collateral. The ECB also liberalized further its definition of acceptable collateral. But expectations of…

Market participants, including economists and strategists are prone to confusing what they believe should be the case with what will be the case.

A good reception to a Spanish bill auction and a some what better than expected German ZEW investor survey helped stabilize the risk sentiment which had been battered yesterday. The major foreign currencies are mostly firmer on the day,…

The British decision to veto the proposed new EU treaty is not surprisingly provoking an avalanche of commentary this weekend. Among journalists, at least, there seems to be a consensus that David Cameron committed some kind of major…

Many were disappointed that the EU Summit didn’t conclude with a hard number backstop for the ‘zone’s sovereign debt rolling over next year. We believe if you scratch the surface the bazooka is there.

Like many, we at the Global Macro Monitor believe the only solution to the European debt crisis is to write down bad debts, but we’re also realistic that it will take time because of the weak and highly levered balance sheets of many of the…

Germany and France are pushing for treaty changes. Under normal conditions treaty changes are a long drawn out process, subject to horse trading and vulnerable to domestic political considerations and the outcome is far from guaranteed.…