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Win Thin 153 posts 0 comments

Win Thin is the Head of Emerging Markets Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Win received his Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University in 1995, specializing in international and development Economics. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983.

Economy

Egypt Vulnerabilities Rising As Reserves Plummet and Inflation Takes Flight

Win Thin Mar 7, 2011

Egypt reserves for February were reported today, and fell almost 5% ($1.7 bln) from January to $33.3 bln. This follows a $1 bln decline in January, and the stock market hasn't even reopened yet. While officials are likely very concerned…

Markets

Mexico Central Bank Turns A Bit Hawkish

Win Thin Mar 4, 2011

Mexico central bank kept rates steady at 4.5% today, as expected. However, it tilted a little more to the hawkish side and supports our view that tightening is likely to start in Q4 11 and not Q1 12 as market is pricing in. Central bank…

Markets

Protracted Oil Spike Possible As Libya Burns

Win Thin Mar 3, 2011

Hugo Chavez as peacemaker? Color us skeptical. Chavez is hardly an impartial third party in this conflict, as he has cozied up to Qaddafi over the years. As such, we would not expect opposition forces to be very open to any sort of Chavez…

Economy

Korean Rate Hike Needed As Inflation Accelerates

Win Thin Mar 2, 2011

By Win Thin Korea February inflation data came in much higher than expected, and supports our view that a rate hike on March 10 is a done deal. The central bank kept rates steady February 11 after a 4-2 vote in favor of a 25 bp rate hike…

Markets

Russia Widens RUB Trading Band, Signaling Comfort With Further Strength

Win Thin Mar 1, 2011

By Win Thin Russia central bank First Deputy Chairman Ulyukayev confirmed that it has widened the so-called “floating corridor” for the ruble basket to 32.45-37.45 vs. 32.95-36.95. The band is now 5 rubles wide, and continues a slow…

Markets

Colombia Hikes Rates, Latin America Yields Very Attractive

Win Thin Feb 28, 2011

By Win Thin Colombia surprised markets with a 25 bp hike to 3.25% late Friday, and marks the first hike of the tightening cycle as the central bank tries to get back ahead of the inflation curve. The deciding factor behind the hike was…

Markets

Saudi Arabia Tries To Calm Oil Markets

Win Thin Feb 22, 2011

We note that uncertainty regarding potential oil supply disruptions is in a sense higher now than it was during the first and second Gulf Wars. Then, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Saddam would be defeated and oil facilities…

Markets

Some Thoughts On Libya’s Likely Market Impact

Win Thin Feb 22, 2011

By Win Thin The Libyan situation continues to deteriorate, with the expected impact on oil (up) and EM (down) being seen today. Libyan leader Qaddafi is hanging on to power despite reported defections by diplomats and soldiers, while his…

Markets

Some Thoughts On Portugal

Win Thin Feb 17, 2011

By Win Thin Portugal remains in the market spotlight as its 10-year yield remains above 7% for the 10th straight day. Furthermore, today Portugal’s 5-year yield broke above 7% for the first time and continues the pattern that we saw with…

Markets

Some Thoughts About EM FX and Equity Performance In 2011

Win Thin Feb 16, 2011

By Win Thin Now that we are about halfway through Q1, we thought it would be helpful to take a look at how equity markets have performed so far this year. The tables below summarize MSCI performance for a variety of countries and…