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Win Thin 153 posts 0 comments

Win Thin is the Head of Emerging Markets Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Win received his Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University in 1995, specializing in international and development Economics. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983.

Markets

China May Add Fuel To Commodity Rally

Win Thin Apr 25, 2011

The press is reporting that China plans to set up new investment funds that will put some of its $3 trln in foreign reserves to work in energy and precious metals. The PBOC is also reportedly studying a proposal to set up some sort of…

Markets

EM Policy-Makers Are Finally Starting To ‘Get It’

Win Thin Apr 23, 2011

Developments in EM over the past couple of weeks suggest to us that EM policy-makers are finally starting to “get it” with regards to inflation and a strong currency. This is a welcome, if somewhat tardy shift. In recent months, EM…

Markets

With 25 bp Hike, Brazil Moves Further Behind The Curve

Win Thin Apr 20, 2011

This was the first 25 bp move in the current cycle and was less than expected, as market expectations had been for 50 bp earlier this month but swung more towards 25 bp this past week on more dovish signals from officials. Of 58 analysts…

Markets

Diverging Inflation Paths In Brazil And Mexico

Win Thin Apr 20, 2011

We are seeing divergent inflation paths in Brazil and Mexico, and today’s mid-April data underscored this point.

Economy

Some Thoughts On China FX Policy

Win Thin Apr 20, 2011

Analyzing official China comments in order to make a currency call is a fool’s errand. However, suffice it to say that all of these comments suggest a reduced patience for the status quo and an increased willingness to recalibrate China FX…

Markets

Some Thoughts On The Oil Market And OPEC

Win Thin Apr 19, 2011

By Win Thin Oil prices are lower today despite Saudi comments that it is cutting output because the market is oversupplied. Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi said that his nation cut output to 8.29 bbl/day in March from 9.13 mln bbl/day in…

Economy

Some Thoughts On The S&P Move

Win Thin Apr 18, 2011

The key takeaway from the S&P announcement is that the US has been put on notice, but no ratings action are likely until 2013. With no one expecting any serious progress on deficit reduction until after the 2012 election, S&P seems…

Economy

China Data Stronger Than Expected, PBOC Must Move More Aggressively

Win Thin Apr 15, 2011

China data came in stronger than expected, and supports the view that PBOC is moving behind the curve with its gradualist approach and that it needs to get more aggressive. Q1 11 GDP growth slowed slightly to 9.7% y/y from 9.8% y/y in Q4…

Markets

Strongly Rising Inflation in Brazil and Chile, Elections in Peru

Win Thin Apr 11, 2011

In Peru, populist candidate Ollanta Humala won the most votes in the weekend presidential vote in Peru, winning 29.3% so far with 75% of the ballots counted. By falling far short of the 50% + 1 needed to win, a second round vote will be…

Markets

Dovish Banco de Mexico Does Not Derail Bullish MXN Call

Win Thin Apr 8, 2011

Mexico central bank Governor Carstens is sounding very dovish, noting that the economic recovery is not leading to price pressures. He believes there is enough slack in the economy still to keep inflation near the 3% target. …