Author

Win Thin 153 posts 0 comments

Win Thin is the Head of Emerging Markets Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Win received his Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University in 1995, specializing in international and development Economics. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983.

Markets

Some Thoughts On The Debt Dynamics In Europe

Win Thin Jan 13, 2011

By Win Thin In its Fiscal Monitor published in November, the IMF makes a crucial point about growth rates and debt dynamics. It points out that the larger the differential for any country between real interest rates (borrowing costs) and…

Markets

Brazil Underscores Commitment To Weakening BRL

Win Thin Jan 10, 2011

By Win Thin Brazil announced that it is allowing its Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) to trade currencies and currency derivatives (futures). The SWF is managed by the Treasury, and so this gives the authorities another channel through…

Markets

Euro Zone Contagion Remains In Force

Win Thin Jan 10, 2011

By Win Thin Even though Greece, Portugal, and Ireland bonds are trading firm today, don’t be fooled into thinking markets are getting more constructive. ECB has reportedly been actively buying today, and so bond spreads are not…

Markets

Brazil Takes Further Action To Weaken Currency

Win Thin Jan 6, 2011

By Win Thin After warning of further measures to fight BRL appreciation, Brazil unveiled yet another policy measure in its toolbox. The central bank introduced reserve requirements on local bank dollar short positions this morning in an…

Economy

Asian Policy-Makers Face Dilemma Of Too Many Targets

Win Thin Jan 5, 2011

by Win Thin Bank Indonesia kept rates steady at 6.5%, as expected. However, we disagree with its dovish stance. Inflation pressures are rising, and tightening should have begun in 2010. Headline inflation was 7.0% y/y in December, the…

Markets

Chilean Plan To Weaken The Peso Likely To Be Followed By Others In EM

Win Thin Jan 4, 2011

by Win Thin Chile peso is the worst performer today vs. the dollar, down 5% after the central bank announced plans to buy $12 bln in order to weaken the currency. The bank plans to buy $50 mln a day from January 5 to February 9, with…

Markets

Brazil Inflation Report Signals Rate Hike In January

Win Thin Dec 22, 2010

by Win Thin Brazil central bank’s quarterly inflation report was quite hawkish, and caught the market off-guard after the decidedly more dovish minutes from the December 7/8 COPOM meeting were reported last week. In those minutes, the…

Markets

Some Thoughts On Possible China Purchases Of Portugal Bonds

Win Thin Dec 22, 2010

by Win Thin We think it’s worth commenting on Portuguese press report today that China has pledged to buy up to EUR4-5 bln ($5.2-6.5 bln) of Portugal sovereign debt. Purchases would be either in the primary or secondary markets and would…

Markets

Clarifying The EFSF/EFSM Bond Issuance

Win Thin Dec 21, 2010

The European Commission announced plans to sell bonds to fund the Irish bailout through the EFSF and EFSM. Each entity will issue EUR3-5 bln in 2011, and will mainly have maturities of 5, 7, and 10 years. More debt will be issued in 2012.…

Markets

Core Euro Zone Coming Under Increased Scrutiny

Win Thin Dec 20, 2010

Our sovereign ratings model puts France as a borderline AA+/Aa1/AA+ credit, so there is certainly a risk that France is downgraded from its current AAA/Aaa/AAA ratings in the coming quarters. However, because the slippage is borderline, we…